My FINAL election model is available here. Based on this simulation, I currently¹ give Donald John Trump a 44.6% chance of becoming the next president. In this simulation, the expected number of electoral college votes is 262.6. The median is 264. The mode is 270. The skewness is −0.27.

You can use these files to build your own model. Unless otherwise noted, both files are licensed under the CC0 1.0 Universal license, or (at your option) any later version.

Plots

Key assumptions

1. States are independent.
2. If both candidates obtain exactly 269 electoral votes, Donald John Trump wins.
3. Electors vote as pledged.

Changelog

2024-10-13

Alabama 0.9↗0.99, Arizona 0.6↗0.65, Arkansas 0.95↗0.99, Florida 0.8↗0.85, Idaho 0.95↗0.99, Iowa 0.95↗0.99, Kansas 0.95↗0.99, Kentucky 0.95↗0.99, Mississippi 0.95↗0.99, Missouri 0.95↗0.99, Montana 0.95↗0.99, North Carolina 0.7↗0.8, North Dakota 0.95↗0.99, Oklahoma 0.95↗0.99, South Dakota 0.95↗0.99, Tennessee 0.95↗0.99, Utah 0.95↗0.99, West Virginia 0.95↗0.99, Wyoming 0.95↗0.99 ↦ Trump 0.321↗0.424

2024-10-14

Nevada 0.4↗0.55 ↦ Trump 0.424↗0.437

2024-10-17

Nevada 0.55↘0.5, Arizona 0.65↘0.6, Georgia 0.6↘0.55, Michigan 0.5↗0.55 ↦ Trump 0.437↘0.424

2024-10-19

Wisconsin 0.5↗0.6, Michigan 0.55↗0.65 ↦ Trump 0.424↗0.46

2024-10-20

Arizona 0.6↗0.65, Minnesota 0.1↗0.2 ↦ Trump 0.46↗0.482

2024-10-27

Georgia 0.55↗0.6, Nevada 0.5↗0.55, Wisconsin 0.6↗0.65 ↦ Trump 0.482↗0.505 (+ added formerly implicit assumption 3)

2024-11-04 (final change)

Florida 0.85↘0.7, Iowa 0.99↘0.7, Michigan 0.65↘0.55, New Hampshire 0.2↗0.25, North Carolina 0.8↘0.7, Ohio 0.8↗0.9, Pennsylvania 0.55↗0.65, Virginia 0.15↗0.25 ↦ Trump 0.505↘0.446

¹ As of 2024-11-04 21:21:13 +0100.