My election model for the 2024 United States presidential election
Posted: 2024-10-12 · Last updated: 2024-11-08 · Permalink
So this was quite wrong! In any case, running Monte Carlo simulations was very useful to me during the night of the election. I put the states in Harris's and Trump's categories as the results came in, and once Pennsylvania was called for Trump, P(Trump) went from 0.995 to about 1.000. I guess I'll do more simulations from now (and more fact-finding missions!).
My FINAL election model is available here. Based on this simulation, I currently1 give Donald John Trump a 44.6% chance of becoming the next president. In this simulation, the expected number of electoral college votes is 262.6. The median is 264. The mode is 270. The skewness is −0.27.
You can use these files to build your own model. Unless otherwise noted, both files are licensed under the CC0 1.0 Universal license, or (at your option) any later version.
Plots
Key assumptions
- States are independent.
- If both candidates obtain exactly 269 electoral votes, Donald John Trump wins.
- Electors vote as pledged.
Changelog
- 2024-10-13
- Alabama 0.9↗0.99, Arizona 0.6↗0.65, Arkansas 0.95↗0.99, Florida 0.8↗0.85, Idaho 0.95↗0.99, Iowa 0.95↗0.99, Kansas 0.95↗0.99, Kentucky 0.95↗0.99, Mississippi 0.95↗0.99, Missouri 0.95↗0.99, Montana 0.95↗0.99, North Carolina 0.7↗0.8, North Dakota 0.95↗0.99, Oklahoma 0.95↗0.99, South Dakota 0.95↗0.99, Tennessee 0.95↗0.99, Utah 0.95↗0.99, West Virginia 0.95↗0.99, Wyoming 0.95↗0.99 ↦ Trump 0.321↗0.424
- 2024-10-14
- Nevada 0.4↗0.55 ↦ Trump 0.424↗0.437
- 2024-10-17
- Nevada 0.55↘0.5, Arizona 0.65↘0.6, Georgia 0.6↘0.55, Michigan 0.5↗0.55 ↦ Trump 0.437↘0.424
- 2024-10-19
- Wisconsin 0.5↗0.6, Michigan 0.55↗0.65 ↦ Trump 0.424↗0.46
- 2024-10-20
- Arizona 0.6↗0.65, Minnesota 0.1↗0.2 ↦ Trump 0.46↗0.482
- 2024-10-27
- Georgia 0.55↗0.6, Nevada 0.5↗0.55, Wisconsin 0.6↗0.65 ↦ Trump 0.482↗0.505 (+ added formerly implicit assumption 3)
- 2024-11-04 (final change)
- Florida 0.85↘0.7, Iowa 0.99↘0.7, Michigan 0.65↘0.55, New Hampshire 0.2↗0.25, North Carolina 0.8↘0.7, Ohio 0.8↗0.9, Pennsylvania 0.55↗0.65, Virginia 0.15↗0.25 ↦ Trump 0.505↘0.446
1 As of 2024-11-04 21:21:13 +0100.